Ukraine Conflict: Root Causes & Dynamics


Ukraine Conflict: Root Causes & Dynamics

1. Ukraine’s Perspective

Core Motivations

  • National Survival: defense of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.
  • Western Alignment: aspiration to join the European Union and NATO for security and prosperity.
  • Democratic Values: pursuit of democracy, rule of law, and human rights free from Russian influence.
  • Historic Trauma: memory of repression (e.g., Holodomor famine, Soviet domination).
  • Cultural Identity: protecting Ukrainian language, heritage, and distancing from Russian cultural/political control.

Strategic Interests

  • Secure Western aid (military, economic, diplomatic).
  • Regain control over Crimea and Donbas regions.
  • Reform institutions to prevent corruption and authoritarian regression.
  • Ensure long-term security by embedding with Western alliances.

2. Russia’s Perspective

Core Motivations

  • Buffer Zone: prevent NATO and Western military encroachment on Russia’s borders.
  • Sphere of Influence: maintain dominance over what it sees as its “near abroad”—Ukraine being central.
  • Identity and Legacy: view Ukraine as historically/culturally intertwined with the idea of “Greater Russia.”
  • Political Stability: fear of a pro-Western, democratic Ukraine inspiring dissent inside Russia.
  • Energy & Economy: retain control over gas pipelines and trade routes through Ukraine.

Strategic Interests

  • Keep Ukraine out of NATO/EU permanently.
  • Retain influence over Ukrainian policymaking.
  • Control or annex key territories (Crimea, parts of Donbas).
  • Deter further Western involvement near Russian borders.

3. International Players

Western Bloc (US, EU, NATO)

  • Contain Russian expansionism.
  • Promote democracy, stability, and integration into Western systems.
  • Ensure European energy security by lessening dependence on Russian supplies.
  • Undercut authoritarian influence in Eastern Europe.

China & Other Powers

  • Support Russia to balance US/NATO power.
  • Seek access to business and strategic alliances in the region.

4. Systemic/Elite Dynamics

  • Transnational Elite Influence: Old European noble families (e.g., Pallavicini, Grimaldi, Savoy, Romanov) and religious institutions (notably the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, and the Jesuits) reportedly exert covert influence on both sides for:
    • Geopolitical leverage.
    • Economic gain (banking, energy, reconstruction contracts).
    • Maintaining centuries-old networks of power through marriage alliances, financial institutions, and diplomacy.
  • Criminal/Economic Networks: Monaco and financial hubs used for laundering money, supporting oligarchic interests, preserving old “black nobility” wealth and influence.

Conflict in a Snapshot

Ukraine wants independence and Western integration, defending its land and national identity.

Russia wants a buffer, control, and to avoid loss of influence, fearing NATO/EU expansion.

The West wants to secure Europe, weaken Russian leverage, and support democracy.

Old elite families & networks—according to some research—see the conflict as an opportunity to maintain or expand their own influence, using the chaos to reroute wealth and power.

Ordinary Ukrainians ultimately pay the price, caught between regional geopolitics, great power competition, and alleged schemes of global elites.

Bottom Line:
The Ukraine conflict is a layered struggle: about land, identity, and freedom on the surface—but also about energy, security, spheres of influence, and, some suggest, longstanding elite networks manipulating outcomes from the shadows. Each side’s stated and underlying interests both shape and prolong the suffering and complexity on the ground.


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