Iran’s Wind Leadership Goal by 2030

 

Iran’s Wind Leadership Goal by 2030

Objective:
Build a world-class wind energy sector—70 GW onshore + 20 GW offshore by 2030—leveraging Iran’s vast coastal and mountain resources to generate ~230 TWh/year, create 300 000+ jobs, and complement the 150 GW solar program.

1. Global Context

  • Top national wind capacities (2023):
    • China ~ 390 GW
    • United States ~ 145 GW
    • Germany ~ 65 GW
  • Top annual additions: ~ 90 GW (China, 2022)
  • Iran’s target (~ 90 GW) would place it among the top three worldwide.

2. Iran’s Wind Resource & Land Needs

Resource Zone Average Speed CF (Est.) Turbine Density Footprint for 1 GW
Onshore Plains & Mountains 6–8 m/s 30 % 3 MW/km² ~ 0.3 GW/km² (≈ 333 km²)
Caspian Sea (shallow offshore) 7–9 m/s 35 % 4 MW/km² ~ 0.4 GW/km² (≈ 250 km²)
Persian Gulf (near-shore) 6–8 m/s 33 % 4 MW/km² ~ 0.4 GW/km² (≈ 250 km²)

Note: Iran’s theoretical onshore potential > 600 GW; offshore > 200 GW. We target a realistic 90 GW by 2030.

3. Phased Build-out Timeline

Phase Period Capacity Added Cumulative Key Actions
Foundation 2025 Onshore 5 GW 5 GW
• Pilot farms in Sistan “120-day” winds (1 GW)



• Caspian & Gulf pilot clusters (2×2 GW)



• Workforce training & IRGC engagement



Scale-Up 2026–27 + 20 GW 25 GW
• 5×3 GW onshore clusters in prime plains



• Initial 5 GW offshore (Caspian & Gulf)



• Grid substations & 1 GWh storage



Acceleration 2028–29 + 40 GW 65 GW
• Expand onshore to 50 GW total



• Offshore to 10 GW total



• Local turbine assembly & O&M centers



Leadership 2030 + 25 GW 90 GW
• Onshore 70 GW, Offshore 20 GW



• HVDC export lines to neighbors



• Full local manufacturing & training hub



4. International Partnerships

  • Denmark & Netherlands: Offshore design, under-sea cables, marine logistics
  • China & India: Mass-manufacture onshore turbines, bulk financing
  • Germany & USA: High-efficiency nacelles, smart-grid tech, SCADA
  • South Korea & Japan: Storage, hybrid turbine-battery systems
  • Turkey & Oman: Grid interconnections, export routes
  • Russia & EU: Heavy infrastructure financing, pump-hydro studies

Iran offers discounted gas/oil during build-out, priority long-term purchase agreements, mineral exports (copper, rare earths).

5. Jobs & Economic Impact

Category Direct Jobs/GW O&M Jobs/GW Total Jobs by 2030
Onshore Construction 600 50 ~ 45 000
Offshore Construction 1 000 80 ~ 16 000
Supply-Chain & Manufacturing 200 20 ~ 10 000
Total — — ~ 71 000

Indirect & induced jobs in services, transport, trade: ~ 230 000
Grand Total: ~ 300 000+

6. Energy & Exports

  • Annual generation
    • Onshore 70 GW × 30 % CF ≈ 184 TWh
    • Offshore 20 GW × 35 % CF ≈ 61 TWh
    • Total: ~ 245 TWh/year
  • Domestic use: ~ 200 TWh → 100% of projected 2030 demand
  • Exportable surplus: ~ 45 TWh → Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, GCC

Export revenue at $0.04/kWh → ~$1.8 billion/year

7. Grid Integration & Storage

  • Substations & HVDC links to Turkey, Pakistan, Oman by 2029
  • Battery storage: 2 GWh by 2027; 5 GWh by 2030
  • Pumped hydro feasibility & pilot by 2028
  • Smart grid upgrades align with solar rollout

8. Risk Mitigation

  • Phased approvals & modular “block” builds
  • Diverse suppliers to avoid single-vendor risk
  • Guardian Coalition financing to insulate from sanctions snap-back
  • Environmental: wildlife corridors, noise buffers, public consultations

Bottom Line

By 2030, Iran can realistically install 70 GW onshore + 20 GW offshore, generating ~ 245 TWh of clean power, creating 300 000+ jobs, and exporting 45 TWh/year. This wind build-out, paired with the 150 GW solar program, cements Iran as a global renewable energy superpower.

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